How do we explain the unpredictable results from USL Kickoff weekend?
Most week one results were surprises based on the consensus preseason picks
USL Kickoff weekend is in the book, and while two of the big dogs in the league, the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Louisville City didn’t play, the others all seemed to have varying degrees of struggles. Coaching changes, some of them late in the offseason (why so many USL Head Coaches leave to take MLS Assistants jobs is a subject I’d like to probe in the future)
Every team I picked in the top five in the Western Conference failed to win its opening match and in the east the big stories were Loudoun United and Miami FC, two clubs picked universally to be at the bottom of the conference.
My colleague Johnathan Starling has some very clear thoughts on why we had so many surprises in week one of the USL Championship season.
From my perspective, as someone who has spent more than 15 years around lower division soccer in the United States, I’ve learned the culture and platform of individual clubs matters more than the names on the roster. Particularly in this era where USL clubs often spend lots of money on players, but often they are guys recycled within the league. Culture, scouting, coaching and club atmosphere matters more in this league than in many others.
The club I am closest to, Miami FC has spent a LOT of money the last two seasons to finish 6th and 9th respectively in the Eastern Conference (and 4th in the Southeast pod the year before that, under the 2021 regional format -before that season the technical staff told me they thought they had the best roster in the league). While a big part of the focus at the club in 2022 and 2023 was on making a US Open Cup run, my sense is the club’s expectations made the place unhappy bordering on miserable at times. This season’s hard reset where only three players were retained from the past underachieving sides and more emphasis was put on youth has expectations tampered down and the place feeling a whole lot happier.
When I was working in the NASL, often times the teams that spent the most money and had the biggest name players, were painfully unsuccessful. Think Montreal in 2011, Minnesota in 2013, Tampa Bay in 2015 and 2016 among others. Those who spent the least, like Minnesota in 2011 and 2012 and Fort Lauderdale in 2014 and 2015 (although this one relied heavily on loan players) and Ottawa in 2015 were elite. This was because they created a club chemistry and unity with a manager that usually was very much in touch with his players.
In USL, we’ve seen the success of Bob Lilley’s approach everywhere he’s been, including right now at Pittsburgh (not withstanding Saturday’s loss) and Orange County SC in acquiring young players and molding them into a cohesive unit. And often times when it comes to OCSC, we’re talking about finding guys that also have a resale value and are anxious to prove themselves ready for a move abroad.
Similarly, LouCity has made the conference title game NINE successive seasons with stacked squads- but I’d argue the club culture there has been more important as they’ve gone through multiple coaches and have recently turned over much of their squad.
While there are certainly differences in levels of players throughout any football/soccer league, I’d argue the differences in US lower division soccer are less pronounced than many might think.
Yes there are highly elite players in the league, but often times the costs of buying within USL, for the star of the previous few years blast a player budget in to the stratosphere and make molding a squad significantly more difficult.
The choice of coach is critical. Look at Tampa Bay and the difference with largely the same group of players and budget under Stuart Campbell vs Neil Collins. Similarly, the choice of who scouts for a club and the overall scouting philosophy matters. Often times gaps in scouting need to be made up for by outside help, something some USL clubs employ wisely.
We’re going to keep digging into these issues as the season goes on.
Thanks to you and Jonathan for scintillating coverage of the opening of the USL season!
It would indeed be wonderful for the USL to be where young unheralded players get exposure and a chance to shine. A stepping stone to greater glory elsewhere, and which in turn earns hefty transfer fees for the USL clubs that first featured them!