Kartik's Notebook: MLS Next Pro, MLS Expansion, USL Super League, Brooklyn USL, Jacksonville Soccerwarz updates
It’s been a while since we did a notebook feature. There is a lot to catch up on. While the US Open Cup controversy was soaking most of the oxygen in the domestic soccer conversation, moves were taking place behind the scenes.
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MLS Next Pro
MLS Next Pro has continued to woo potential independent clubs. My reporting indicates MLS NP has cast a wide net into what we’d consider Tier 2 or 3 markets to find potential owners and suitable stadium situations. In addition to the Palm Beach County and Fort Myers efforts that we have previously reported on, the league is looking at several places in the Southeast and Midwest in particular.
I’ve been told by multiple sources that a potential D2 league made up entirely of independent clubs could be in the cards in the future. The MLS Reserve teams would be left in D3. How this would impact geographic balance is a worthy discussion - but in any event this potential is several years down the road.
MLS Expansion
I am hearing increasing speculation that outside of potentially Tampa Bay and San Antonio, MLS is done pulling USL teams up to D1. As we saw last year in San Diego and previously in Charlotte, MLS is now in the mode of viewing USL clubs in big markets as ones that they want to replace. Keep in mind Tampa Bay and San Antonio are both under the ownership of groups that own “major league” franchisees in other sports.
Brooklyn
As Hudson River Blue reported this morning, Brooklyn is headed to the USL Championship in year one- 2025. The ownership group already did USL a solid by moving into the USL Super League for year one when both Phoenix and Tucson dropped out.
USL has for a while wanted to draw a line and compete with MLS within some large metro areas. MLS and USL Championship/League One currently have three large urban areas where both have clubs: Charlotte, Miami/Fort Lauderdale and San Francisco/San Jose/Oakland.
Chicago was a target for USL but the proposed Wrigleyville team fell through. Obviously the victory for Orange County SC against the LA Galaxy in terms of keeping Great Park was a massive statement, but now another, greater battle ground potentially looms (I do think the Orange County victory owed itself more to local supporters than anything USL did on the corproate side FWIW).
USL has wanted to have a NYC-based teams since before the NASL breakaway. This will now give them that, in addition to being the only NYC-based D1 women’s side.
NISA has consistently put teams in MLS markets but have had little success in gaining any sort of local market traction.
In terms of the USL Championship landscape, serious questions are persisting as to whether the Iowa and New Orleans teams kick a ball anytime soon - Milwaukee has slipped to 2026. The Northwest Arkansas team looks promising, but that’s also 2026.
We will have a further Jacksonville update below, but the point is USL might have needed Brooklyn in the Championship next year for the numbers to work.
USL Super League
With the league slated to kick off in mere months, some teams have been more active than others. Fort Lauderdale, Lexington, Spokane and Tampa Bay have all made moves indicating they are ramping up to a D1 level for year one.
However, I am hearing concerns about the other clubs and their timetables -particularly the DC and Charlotte area teams. With Brooklyn now making a move toward USL Championship in 2025, how will that impact their rather short run-up to launch a D1 level women’s product later this year?
Soccerwarz: Jacksonville
Jacksonville Armada
The Armada plan to move to MLS Next Pro next season but won’t do so in its new downtown stadium. The stadium will begin construction this summer and will be done by early in 2026. Meanwhile as we’ve previously reported, the Armada’s NWSL bid has strengthened with some local relationships that have been created on the women’s side.
Sporting JAX
The club is getting close to announcing a stadium site. Contrary to reports and rumors that circulated in the past, I’m told the stadium is likely to be in Duval not St Johns County. The club expects to kick a ball on both the men’s and women’s side in USL no later than 2026.
Sporting is already aggressively courting soccer aficionados through an effective YouTube Podcast that tackles the biggest issues in domestic and international soccer. The club also recently opened its offices in South Jacksonville.
Soccerwarz
An MLS source tells me the relationship with USL currently is “as bad as it ever was with the NASL prior to Rocco (Commisso) buying the Cosmos.” However, I’d note USL is in a MUCH stronger position to withstand the MLS onslaught than NASL was.
The Soccerwarz between the MLS and USL may be better viewed as a war between "soccer specific stadiums" (SSS) and the robust and durable revenue streams such SSS ensures. There is only so much prime real estate available for such SSS in the choice locations, so whoever is first to develop it has a commanding fortress position. Even USL League One teams increasingly have their own SSS (such as South George Tormenta SC) which will ensure protection against MLS Next Pro encroachment......