Kartik's Notebook Part 1: USL v MLS Next Pro update; MLS Next age group change? What is happening in NPSL?
A lot to unpack this week...
This week, we’re going to have two notebook columns.
Today we’ll start with the men’s side. Later this week, we’ll dive into the challenges USL Super League faces for a clean August launch.
Nine months ago I wrote a piece which alarmed many people, predicting (with sources) MLS Next Pro would add Chattanooga FC and the Jacksonville Armada, two vaunted independent clubs.
Obviously both clubs have now moved to MLS NP. So that prediction was correct.
I also made the case that MLS Next Pro was consolidating its ability to woo potential independent club ownership groups to its league instead of USL. I felt at the time, USL was in fact “on the clock,” if they wanted to head off the MLS Next Pro juggernaut.
Not so fast my friends…
Events move quickly and while USL was most certainly on the back foot then, and may still be at an overall market disadvantage, they are back in the game so to speak. There are multiple reasons for this.
USL v MLS
MLS Next Pro remains a cheaper option with a lower-cost of entry and less travel. This makes it on the surface a safer bet for investors. Yet, my sense that MLS could possibly run USL out of the men’s pro game eventually far less likely today than nine months ago. Let’s explore why.
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MLS Next Pro’s stigma as a reserve league has done two things:
1- Given investors some pause over what sort of home crowds you can attract playing MLS 2 sides (although I’d argue in some cases playing an MLS 2 side associated with a big club like Atlanta United is a better draw than playing I don’t know, the Northern Colorado Hailstorm? But these cases are rare. 90% of the time the independent opponent looks more attractive than the “two” brand). This is why MLS suddenly is pursuing putting reserve teams in other markets and re-branding them. But several MLS Technical/Sporting Directors I am told don’t like this idea and are pushing back. So stay tuned…
2- Agents and players concern over quality of play and whether they can truly develop in MLS NP. This is a bit chicken and egg because truthfully, until MLS can get enough independent clubs in the door that are competing to win something, USL will look a more attractive option for many.
- Truthfully, nine months ago I had NOT considered the player issues and just thought about business side in terms of investment and open markets. I accept that this was a flaw in my analysis at the time. Another thing I did not anticipate related to this was that USL would ramp up its own efforts at league HQ in Tampa to facilitate the transition of young players and sale of them to European clubs. It’s a process that seems to be reaping dividends early.
USL League One remains a cost-prohibitive league because of travel. But as USL fills the map on that division we could see changes there. However, at this point, I stick with my view that travel in MLS Next Pro is more cost-effective than any USL professional league.
Television vs Apple
This might shock younger readers but many pro sports owners and people who have money to invest in pro sports teams still think television is preferable to streaming services. They also think mainstream streaming services are preferable to Apple TV+ .
Additionally, this TV v Apple issue (the majority of USL clubs in the Championship and League 1 have some sort of local TV deal, several on over-the-air channels) is impacting players movements and signings. Agents tell me they don’t like players being buried behind the MLS Season Pass pay wall (or its inaccessibility even when free) unless they think their client has a fairly clean path to eventually be an MLS First Team player.
If this is ambiguous, signing in USL is often preferable. Obviously agents would prefer their clients except in rare instances play in MLS instead of USL, BUT is the path to MLS clean through Next Pro? Or do agents need to be realistic about what is going to move players up the ladder quicker? Could clients get to Europe faster via USL than MLS NP or MLS?
All of this comes into play and often It’s a case-by-case decision but is something opening the door more for USL to survive in this iteration of the Soccerwarz.
Changing economics
Make no mistake about it - most USL Championship clubs currently lose money. Some lose a TON of money annually. While I am sure MLS NP clubs don’t make money for their parents I am equally sure they lose a lot less for various reasons (no marketing, less travel, shared staffing with parent club and lower player salaries). Independent owners therefore saw MLS NP as a safer option. But then what does an independent budget look like MLS NP? Carolina Core, an expansion 2024 side has spent USL Championship level money on infrastructure, marketing and players.
Now I believe the Core will save money on travel versus USL League One clubs in their same region - think Richmond Kickers or Charlotte Independence. But it remains to be seen how their home attendance will be for the matchup with New England Revolution 2. Compare it to (sort of) local rivals North Carolina FC of USL Championship its significantly cheaper.
And while the Core have spent a lot on players, they’ve still spent a lot less than let’s say the Charleston Battery (sticking with the same region) has in the USL Championship. But of course the Battery have 25+ years of illustrious history to fall back on.
But where the economics have changed in the last nine months is on broader-based investments. Costs of living have risen so paying for player housing and expenses is also more expensive. MLS Next Pro is still more cost effective than any USL professional league, but the rise of fixed costs like housing have negated some of that advantage. Is it temporary? Probably yes, but it also impacts decisions investors are making NOW on what league system to place their money behind and where to put expansion clubs.
MLS Next
In a related development to all of this, I am told MLS Next is seriously considering dropping the U-19 age group for its clubs on the men’s side, pushing those players into MLS Next Pro clubs. Because of the tendency of some MLS academies to keep players too long in their youth set up, USL clubs have had lots of success poaching players
NPSL
In recent years NPSL has become more centralized and hasn’t controlled costs particularly well. But it still has regional play and a lower cost-structure than USL League 2 or NISA. And several NPSL clubs still regularly draw well in their local markets. Think Lubbock who will play in the US Open Cup Third Round this week or Annapolis among others.
But in recent years an exodus to USL League 2 as well as regional leagues has happened with some of the better-established and more ambitious clubs. USL League 2 have taken a potpourri of clubs from NPSL in the last several years including standouts like Little Rock Rangers, Minneapolis City SC, AFC Ann Arbor.
I am told reigning National Champion, Tulsa Athletic might be spending its last year in NPSL this season if leadership changes aren’t made. The same for Napa Valley 1839 FC.
We’ve seen AFC Mobile revived as well in Gulf Coast Premier League after they took a really good product and flushed it down the toilet by going to NPSL and seeing costs explode with little return on investment.
Watch the NPSL space this year.
MLS NP has to scale up the number of independent clubs quickly or USL will be on the front foot to use your analogy.
This is a good column. The only thing you missed is that Chattanooga ended up losing some veteran players when they moved from NISA to MNP. Supposedly a move up in terms of level of league has made their team worse because they had many veteran players who do not want MLS NP.
By the way, even though I’m upset about your questioning of Nisa, this is why I still pay to subscribe. This is great insight, and the type of insight you will never find in the mainstream soccer media.