On the Edge: Does Chattanooga Have a Shot at the Playoffs?
Sitting at 9th place with seven matches to go, we look at the path.
Image credit Jim Myers/Chattanooga Red Wolves
With an expanded playoff format for 2024, it’s inevitable that a couple of mediocre sides will squeak in. But the beauty of a one-and-done knockout format is that all you have to do is make it in. The 8th seed will travel to the 1st seed, and will throw everything they have at pulling an upset.
Chattanooga Red Wolves have struggled recently, dropping four in a row. This includes an embarrassing 4-1 loss at Knoxville, in which the home side had its largest margin of victory in its history.
Still, Chattanooga sits just one point outside of the playoff bubble. The club has three points on 10th place Lexington, and its five wins are one more than 8th place South Georgia Tormenta. It’s the losses that have come back to haunt Chattanooga as the season hits the home stretch. They have the most in the league at nine, with just one draw.
Chattanooga’s Path to the Playoffs
Unfortunately, the next five matches are against powerhouse sides that are all but a lock for the playoffs. They’ll face Madison twice, along with Greenville, Northern Colorado and Knoxville.
If Chattanooga can survive that stretch with a couple of wins and a draw, they might make it. Of course, that is dependent on the performance of other bubble sides, such as Spokane, South Georgia, and possibly Lexington, Richmond and Central Valley Fuego.
If Chattanooga can pull at least seven points out of the stretch, they’ll have 23 points heading into the final two weeks of the season. There, they’ll travel to Richmond, then host Lexington. Chattanooga had no issues with Richmond earlier this season, posting a 3-1 win. They fell to Lexington 1-0 on the very first match of the season.
Given Chattanooga’s recent form, and difficult remaining schedule, we don’t rate the chances very high. But here’s what will have to happen to get through it.
Offensive Power
Offense has been a strong point this season, with the team sitting at 5th in the league on goals scored with 22. This is just three fewer than South Georgia Tormenta’s 25, and right around the same as top-tier clubs Omaha, Charlotte, Madison and Greenville.
With Johnny Filipe exiting the season early with an unfortunate injury, and Ricky Ruiz sold off to El Paso, Stefan Lukic has stepped up. Traditionally a striker, the 29-year-old has pivoted to midfield and winger for Chattanooga. This has allowed Lukic to provide support for the “triple-M,” Mayele Malango, Chevone Marsh and Ropapa Mensah.
Lukic has four assists in the regular season, and has created 20 chances. And being a striker by trade, he’s also not afraid to take shots, providing 15.
Speaking of the triple-M, Malango, Marsh and Mensah have teamed up to score 16 goals. The Chattanooga offense is notoriously difficult to defend with all of this firepower on the pitch.
Defensive Struggles
Chattanooga has the worst defense in the league, giving up 32 goals. They’ve put immense pressure on goalkeeper T.J. Bush, who also leads the league in saves at 76. This is 20 more than the next goalkeeper, Austin Pack. Bush, for all his efforts, is just not getting defensive support.
It didn’t help that prize center back Richard Rentería has not been able to play a single match this season. One has to imagine a slightly different timeline in which the veteran of Colombian top flight remains healthy and in the starting 11. Instead, the back line has been an inconsistent rotation, working well about one of every four or five matches.
Even when it appears to have worked well, a deeper look shows a different story. At Union Omaha on July 27th, they walked away with a 1-0 win. However, this was easily a 4-1 loss if not for Bush, who made eight saves.
The only time recently that the defense seemed cohesive was on July 13th against Richmond, a 3-1 win. This was a back line of Pedro Hernandez, Leo Folla, Declan Watters and Owen Green. They were also helped by the team going up 2-0 in the first ten minutes, turning Richmond desperate. They’d respond with a 26th minute goal from Emiliano Terzaghi, but had trouble breaking through, finishing with just three more shots on target.
Can Chattanooga Make the Playoffs?
If they somehow figure out their defensive woes, it’s a hard maybe. But this late in the season, if they haven’t figured that out yet, it’s unlikely that they’d do it now. Instead, it might be best to start thinking about building back better next year.