Johnathan Starling and Kartik Krishnaiyer have made their sure to be wrong USL Championship picks for the season. This post unlocks for free subscribers Thursday afternoon.
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Johnathan Starling:
Eastern Conference Predictions:
1) Louisville City FC: This team reloaded this past offseason and are my preseason prediction for the Players’ Shield. Arturo Ordóñez should solidify the back.
2) Charleston Battery: They started rebuilding for another championship run while they won the Championship last season with Mark Segbers coming in late in the season. I do worry though about Ben Pirmann bringing in too many familiar faces to him.
3) Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC: Discount Bob Lilley at your peril. I know I won’t. I think he’s refreshed the squad with the right puzzle pieces.
4) Tampa Bay Rowdies: Leo Fernandes returning doesn’t mask losing the culture that left the second Neill Collins did.
5) Indy Eleven: I worry the age of this squad finally catches up with them. If it doesn’t, they might end up higher in the table.
6) Birmingham Legion FC: I could see this team being a slow burn as they adapt to a new formation. I think by midseason they’ll be fine and comfortably in this spot by season’s end.
7) Rhode Island FC: They spent money this year, I almost worry too much. They should score goals, the midfield should be sound. I do worry the midfield might have to do too much of the defensive work.
8) Hartford Athletic: Brandon Burke has rebuilt this squad in his image, and if it wasn’t the first year of this team being together I’d likely have them higher in the table.
9) North Carolina FC: It’s a jump from League 1 to the Championship, but they picked the bones of San Diego Loyal well. They also may have made the signing of the offseason in Paco Craig. He will keep this team competitive and in the playoff race all year.
10) Detroit City FC: Won’t deny they’ll be tough to score against. What I worry about is them finding 1 goal a game. I struggle to see it.
11) Loudoun United FC: I like their fight, but I think the core is one year away from making any noise.
12) Miami FC: I have 0 faith in the current squad producing. Wooden spoon winners to me (worst record in the league).
Western Conference Predictions:
1) San Antonio FC: Think Juan Agudelo puts them over the top to finish top of the conference.
2) Sacramento Republic FC: My concern with them this year is enough draws turn to losses this year.
3) El Paso Locomotive FC: Their signings haven’t been splash worthy, but what they have been are fundamentally sound. I think they surprise people this year.
4) Orange County SC: They were smart taking the interim tag off Karlsen, but I worry about replacing the goals that left this offseason.
5) Phoenix Rising FC: Too many changes for me mixed with the brick wall known as Rocco Rios likely being in Paris for Argentina’s Olympic team.
6) New Mexico United: When they have those ‘have to score chances’, they score. Unfortunately, it’s too many of their goals. Have to get more creative or 5-7 is where they will stick.
7) Memphis 901 FC: Too much lost with too many questions in in the signings they brough in, mainly Neco Brett. Also think they will be in for quite the surprise moving to the Western Conference.
8) Monterey Bay SC: This pick likely blows up in my face, but I trust Yallop’s moves this offseason. Most likely way too much I will admit.
9) Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC: They have the ability to get forward, I seriously question their ability to defend. It’s why I can’t put them in the playoff positions.
10) FC Tulsa: They’re making all the right moves off the field, but not sure there’s enough talent on the field. If Phillip Goodrum maintains the strike rate he had last year, I’m going to eat these words.
11) Oakland Roots SC: I could see Paul Blanchette begging to get out of here. He’s too good to not have the help in front him. He’s got no help in front of him here.
12) Las Vegas Lights FC: I think they’re better than last season, just not by much. What rebuild are we are on now for this team? 3?
Kartik Krishnaiyer
Eastern Conference Predictions:
Charleston Battery
I like the balance of the squad and Aaron Molloy, Graham Smith, Jackson Conway and Jake LaCava signings should solidify this as the top team in the east. Augustine Williams departure probably means even more goals are needed from attacking midfield positions particularly, Nick Markanich this season.
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Cal Jennings and Charlie Dennis returns as does LEO FERNANDES (all caps for a reason). Long-time NASL and USL watches like myself put Fernandes in the very top bracket of D2 players in the US in the last 15 years. Tampa Bay survived without him last year and provided they can actually beat Birmingham this season, could strive for great things. Robbie Neilson is a high-level coaching hire. A third star is a real possibility.
Louisville City FC
The core has been aging for a while but signing the likes of Arturo Ordóñez should put LouCity back near the top of the east.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Bob Lilley will do what Bob Lilley does. Drive a less-talented team through the wall for him. Like always he’ll burn out one or two of the players but almost certainly get the Riverhounds into the playoffs again. I love the Kazaiah Sterling signing.
Birmingham Legion FC
A lot of change, but I feel like Legion FC which had an overpriced and underachieving squad most years has more balance and depth this season. Enzo Martinez remains an elite player at this level. Legion might play differently this year as Johnathan indicates. Will Tom Soehn actually dump the four-man press as we’ve seen at times in the preseason and go three-at-the-back? Whatever the case the option is there, which makes Birmingham potentially stronger.
Rhode Island FC
On paper this team should be near the very top, but Khano Smith has a tough job melding players from all-over together quickly in a completely new squad. They’ll get better as the season goes on and will make the playoffs. And given the level of talent in this squad, once they get into the postseason, no one will want to face them.
North Carolina FC
Okay I complained more than I should have about Paco Craig last season at Miami FC, but John Bradford bringing him in makes newly “promoted” NCFC (does that mean they were “relegated” at some point?) solid at the back. Collin Martin and Evan Conway are elite picks up as well. Julian Placias an intriguing player to me who broke in last year in League One.
Indy Eleven
Augustine Williams is a great signing but something about this squad has me worried. Also is Sean MacAuley , who has never been a head coach the right guy? Unfortunately I know a little too much about the behind-the-scenes at this club and it always makes me uncomfortable to pick them to do big things. Maybe they’ll prove me wrong.
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Hartford Athletic
I should have more faith in Brendan Burke and Hartford will be far better this season. However, the additions of Rhode Island and North Carolina to the east probably push Athletic down slightly and they’ll be fighting for the last playoff spot.
Detroit City FC
Danny Dichio comes in to replace Trevor James. I think DCFC will be feisty and as usual solid at the back, but the attack still seems deficient.
Loudoun United FC
Team will be more experienced than usual this year. Florian Valot and Drew Skundrich are key additions. Still not much depth and not enough high-level experience to make the playoffs in my view.
Miami FC
This is the club I follow closest and support (and formerly worked for), but yet aim to be objective about them. A lot of unknown pieces with little domestic experience, so perhaps they could be better than expected. But expectations have to be about as low as they have been for any non-reserve team in recent USL Championship history. I will just leave it at that.
Western Conference Predictions
Sacramento Republic FC
Trevor Amann signing is massive and the return of the core including Jack Gurr make this my pick to not only win the west but win the league at least in terms of regular season points.
El Paso Locomotive FC
Call me naive with this one but I like Brian Clarhaut’s style of soccer- controlling the tempo and pace of matches and feel like this offseason’s signings fit the coach’s philosophy to a tee.
San Antonio FC
Alan Marcina’s squad looks different this year. I wouldn’t sleep on them as Mitchell Taintor remains one of the best in the league.
Phoenix Rising FC
The amazing playoff run was one thing but achieving consistency this season in a tough west and with many changes might be tougher. I really could go either way on them.
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
I like this team’s balance but with a new Head Coach in Jason Chambers, let’s see how it all shakes out. I’ll get to see this team in person on opening night against Miami FC.
Orange County SC
Lost too many attacking players - most notably Milan Iloski and Korede Osundina who both made moves to Europe. This club remains the model in my opinion for player development and advancement in the entire men’s soccer pyramid. They’ll still make the playoffs but not be a top team like last season.
New Mexico United
Josh Suggs and Austin Yearwood retiring in addition to other changes means NMU probably finishes somewhere in the middle of the pack. I agree with Johnathan that creativity is a huge issue for this squad.
Las Vegas Lights FC
I am taking a flier here but think they’ve substantially upgraded what was an embarrassing team last season. I might look like a fool for putting this team in the playoffs. But I do believe they have substantially improved the squad
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9 ) FC Tulsa
I thought they’d be much better this year but might be focusing too much on Blair Gavin leaving for MLS as late as he did. Still they have a shot at the playoffs.
10) Memphis 901 FC
I think the move to the west will be tough and I have too many questions about their signings.
11) Oakland Roots SC
The attack remains too weak in a tough western conference.
12) Monterey Bay SC
Tristan Trager could be a great signing, but he’s going to have to produce a lot more and play more than he did in Charleston.
The other thing worth mentioning is that the League feels like it's gone through an upgrade this off-season. So many teams look and feel like they're taking big steps forward, and then I look around and feel like it doesn't mean a big move forward within the league itself. Very excited to see the season start!
Typo alert! "Get 50% OFF for an annual plan!" (right above Jonathan's byline)
No one wants "half of a plan" : )))
About the predictions, it is a mystery why Oakland Roots perform or spend so badly? The proximity to the riches of Silicon Valley & San Francisco tech hubs would think there would be vast amounts of capital that the Roots could tap into. Since there is no competing SF pro soccer team, isn't there any rich mogul investors as part of the Roots ownership??