If I were USL, I would...
The United Soccer League (USL) dropped some big news recently, the creation of a new Division One league for US men’s professional soccer. Of course this news was met with a lot of vocal optimism that pro/rel was now on the visible horizon. However, like a few others, I’m not that optimistic.
From some comments I’ve read, this isn’t a play for USL to directly compete with MLS, but a chance to get a few of those CONCACAF Champions Cup slots and move voting power with US Soccer. As one influencer said, even if USL isn’t trying to directly compete with MLS, MLS will definitely see the USL as a threat.
The Pro League Standards (PLS) is a great example of hindering competition. It has been widely suspected that the PLS was written to keep MLS as the sole Division One league. The fact that the English Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1 would all fail the market size requirement only strengthens this suspicion.
Trying to comply with PLS will be an uphill battle for USL. It’s worrying that they currently don’t even have five clubs that would fit the criteria. On top of that, trying to maintain another national league will be difficult. Most clubs are already losing money and cross country travel doesn’t help matters.
Establishing clubs in markets that also have MLS teams is pretty risky. MLS has better branding and deeper pockets. There has been some speculation that a few USL owners are just waiting for the chance to jump to MLS. We’ve already seen this happen with clubs like FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC. I think going head-to-head with MLS is a losing proposition in the long term. It’s a simple case of “big bank take little bank”.
Even with the odds against them, I do believe that USL is correct in trying to create a new Division One league. I just don’t think a new national league is sustainable. Even though USL is more palatable to investors because a USL franchise is much cheaper than MLS, MLS still has the momentum. On the global stage, MLS equals US soccer. It’s going to be hard to change that mindset.
If I were USL, I would get out of the soccer league business, and pivot to becoming the agency over US professional soccer. Think of it as USL becoming to the US what the English Football League (EFL) is to England and J.League is to Japan. It will be hard to compete while trying to follow the PLS.
There have been plenty of videos about what markets could have clubs that would be in the new USL Premier league. They have all figured out how USL could get the 12 to 14 clubs necessary and satisfy the PLS criteria. But what happens when they start playing and then implement pro/rel? What happens if through pro/rel, the USL Premier League (USLPL) is made up of teams that don’t pass the market size requirement? For example, what if the eventual USLPL is made up of clubs like Charleston Battery, Loudon United, Rhode Island FC, Lexington SC, Orange County FC, and Monterey Bay FC?
If you step back and think about it, USL can’t implement pro/rel and successfully satisfy the current PLS. So instead of trying to play that game, play a new one. I don’t think that the USSF actually wants to be responsible for the PLS and professional soccer. If USL actually became what their name implies, I believe USSF would happily cede control to them.
By becoming the agency of US professional soccer, the new USL could then bring all the leagues under one umbrella and establish a proper pyramid with pro/rel. Unlike the rest of the world, US soccer leagues compete with each other. In England, for example, the Premier League does not compete with the Championship, League One, or League Two. Though the Premier League separated from the EFL, they are still a part of the English football league system.
The USL taking the lead to manage a cohesive system would change the landscape of US soccer. Leagues would no longer compete against each other. Actually, leagues in the US sense would go away. It would fall in line with how the rest of the world views leagues. In order for this to happen, USL would need to change from their current franchise model. US sports leagues have always used the franchise model for very valid reasons. However, unlike MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL, MLS and USL don’t have a monopoly on the global soccer talent.
Players can choose to play a high quality level of soccer in a number of leagues around the world and get well compensated. If someone plays baseball, basketball, football, or hockey, they would make the most money by playing in the US. Having a limited number of franchises works for those sports as they are able to consolidate the best talent.
This model doesn’t work for soccer. So since the US can’t monopolize the talent, why do we continue to use financial models that do more to hurt growth rather than stimulate the growth of soccer? Like Japan, I think USL should look at switching to a licensing model. The franchise model has not been successful. One third of all the clubs that started in the USL Championship or USL One have either moved on to other leagues or folded. Of the ones that moved to another league, just a few have gone to MLS. The others mostly moved to a lower league, usually because of finances.
Switching to a licensing model increases the chances of success for clubs and the USL. Licensing allows them to set standards while getting rid of such things as exclusive territories and market size. Using the J.League as the model, I’d suggest the following:
USL Premier
$350,000 annual license fee
7500 minimum stadium capacity
5000 average attendance per game
$200,000 average income per game
USL Championship
$150,000 annual license fee
5000 minimum stadium capacity
3500 average attendance per game
$100,000 average income per game
USL One
$75,000 annual license fee
3000 minimum stadium capacity
2000 average attendance per game
$75,000 average income per game
USL Two
$30,000 annual license fee
2000 minimum stadium capacity
1000 average attendance per game
$50,000 average income per game
The average attendance is calculated by turnstile, not tickets distributed. I believe that hitting these numbers will help ensure success for clubs. In order to achieve this, each club needs to help build a soccer culture in their respective communities. Also, market exclusivity is irrelevant. If you can’t meet the licensing criteria, you will be given a provisional license and receive a point deduction.
Moving to a licensing model helps ensure recurring income for the league. Also, instead of paying exorbitant franchise fees, owners can actually invest in their club’s infrastructure. For around $20-50 million, they could build a nice 10,000 seat modular stadium. Even better, they could build a stadium with less seats and expand as the club grows and rises up the pyramid.
Another benefit of moving to a licensing model is it allows for a wider variety of ownership models. I still believe that if an existing club is purchased, owner worth needs to come into play. Otherwise, if a club earns promotion, they should have the finances in place to receive a league license.
The USL currently shares club best practices with their franchisees. This is good news for clubs already in the USL, but what about the ones that want to earn promotion into the professional ranks? For this, I think the J.League also serves as the best example. The J.League provides guides that I believe US clubs could also use. You can think of them as being a blueprint for running a successful club.
J.League Club Management Guide
I’m sure there will be some skepticism with using a licensing model instead of the standard franchise model US leagues typically use. So I’d like to point out that to my knowledge, the J.League is the only soccer league in the world where all the clubs are profitable. This is 60 clubs across three divisions. One of the criteria for obtaining a J.League license is that the club has to be financially sustainable.
Next time we’ll discuss how USL could implement pro/rel.
George Pasley is the author of A Fan's Dream: The Evolution of Soccer in the US to Promotion & Relegation
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The overwhelming issue in American soccer is geography, especially in relation to population. The distribution of people on the left and right coasts is so dense, and then so much more sparse in between. The sport is growing by leaps and bounds, but support pales in comparison to other sports. Nobody has any angst about drawing fans to Lincoln, Nebraska for a college football game (as just one example). The fan bases for soccer are growing, but even MLS doesn't compare remotely.
So, what is the answer? I believe the answer lies more in trying to get more of a regional flavor. Like pro/rel, fingers can't be snapped and simply make it happen. There needs to be a vision and strategy to strive towards. Forcing leagues to be nationwide is a gigantic mistake. The travel costs just eat up the money.
That's the issue when we compare to Japan, England, etc, etc. How easy is it to travel around Japan to get to games? All of the other big leagues in the world are contained in tight geographies. We are in a unique situation that needs a unique solution
This article contains many basic errors about the J.League. The league faces numerous issues and is heavily reliant on taxpayer money for its operations, which has led to criticism calling it the "Tax League"(税リーグ). The J.League is far from being a "paradise on Earth."
First, most of the 60 teams are considered chronic deficits, and many are even in excess debt. Most
clubs rely on financial support from their parent companies and local governments. Under J.League regulations, clubs are only required to avoid consecutive losses for three years. As long as they receive enough financial backing from parent companies or municipalities every three years, they can continue operating.
These issues have been highlighted in a report by ANA Research Institute (ANA is one of Japan’s leading airlines).
https://www.anahd.co.jp/group/ari/human/report/pdf/report-2024-08-03.pdf
Furthermore, the J.League's stadium licensing requirements, particularly for a J1 license, are among the strictest in the world. Stadiums must have a minimum seating capacity of 15,000 (all individual seats; grass terraces are not allowed), be fully covered by a roof, and use natural grass. Many lower-division clubs are pushing for such costly stadiums to be built using taxpayer money, which has sparked considerable criticism.
Another major concern regarding investment in the J.League is the uncertainty caused by promotion and relegation. Japan’s professional basketball league, the B.League, has taken this into account and abolished the pro/rel system altogether.