MLS Next Pro evolving as the "Soccerwarz" rages on

MLS Next Pro is solidifying its presence with recent developments but still faces multiple challenges to truly be a USL rival

In the ebbs and flows of the Soccerwarz, MLS/MLS Next Pro’s (MLS NP) advantages of 2023 were washed away in 2024. But now with recent developments it feels like Next Pro is back as a player - and might just have a staying power that looked unlikely when this calendar year began.

This doesn’t mean MLS NP is on the front foot per se versus USL but they are in growth mode. Additionally, USL is having difficulties with some of its recent League One startups. As usual, I would be surprised if every USL L1 side returns next season. In fact, while no USL L1 clubs “folded” after last season, two teams shifted to the startup The League for Clubs (TLfC). But critically, no club shifted to MLS Next Pro.

While FC Naples and AV Alta have stood out, the struggles of other newer clubs is worrying because MLS NP is a far more competitive product from a financial perspective. Squad assembly, technical and travel costs are lower in Next Pro than in USL League One, as is the entry cost.

USL’s foray into promotion and relegation will no doubt, help shape this ongoing battle. But it’s too early to see the impact.

Here is an update on the independent clubs in MLS NP.

• Carolina Core appear to be a club with a much more solid footing in terms of consistent investment and local penetration than most clubs in the USL’s pro league ecosystem. Regardless of on-field performance (which isn’t poor by any means), Carolina Core appear to be building a community-based strength most lower division teams in the country would salivate about.

• Chattanooga FC continues to outdraw the Chattanooga Red Wolves of USL-1, though it can be argued that Next Pro isn’t responsible for this reality, but merely inherited it.

• The announcement of major investment in Grand Rapids is unique in terms of lower division soccer startups. The West Michigan club will have elite ownership - the type you see for Major League franchises in American pro sports in addition to an 8,500 purpose-built facility when they launch in 2027. In fact the stadium has already experienced its ground breaking.

• The addition of Golden Gate FC which will play at a renovated Kezar Stadium in San Francisco. This was the venue that hosted the NASL 2.0’s San Francisco Deltas. The Deltas won the 2017 NASL title while providing comic relief for soccer fans and constant embarrassments for NASL HQ. This SFO-based club looks to be much better grounded. The Bay Area is a major area of conflict between MLS and USL with Oakland being the site of an already hot battle between the USL Championship’s Oakland Roots and MLS Next Pro’s The Town FC. Additionally, (arguably) USL’s strongest club in its entire ecosystem is up I-80 in Sacramento, while one of MLS’ weakest clubs is in San Jose. It also is worth monitoring the continued impact of the Oakland A’s relocation on the Earthquakes in general, as sharing an ownership group with a franchise that’s relocating from the region isn’t a great recipe for success from a marketing perspective. Earthquakes principal owner John Fisher is among the most disliked people in the area for moving the A’s and that is having an impact on the politicians and business leaders in the region. This is a situation that directly benefits the Roots.

• In Jacksonville, the Armada will be in a purpose-built facility long before USL’s Sporting Jacksonville. However, this appears to the only place where the Armada, whose history spans back to 2013 in NASL has an advantage over Sporting Jax. The build-out for Sporting Jacksonville can be compared to Carolina Core’s in terms of investment, the hiring of high-level staff and the community relations piece. They’re also further ahead of any startup of recent years in building out on the technical side. Sporting Jax shows how this should be done- give yourself 18-24 months minimum of a buildout before kicking a ball in a pro league.

• The very ambitious Cleveland pro soccer project not only will have an MLS Next Pro side in a downtown stadium but has opted for WPSL Pro instead of the USL Super League on the women’s side. We’ll get deeper into the WPSL Pro subject in the near future, but that league is proving a disrupter at the moment to USL fully building out on the women’s side. Thus far, I am seeing no impact from the proposed NWSL Second Division but that could change.

• The CT United project however appears to be delayed as CT lawmakers seek an economic impact study before committing the necessary public funds to the project.

• The Town FC is having success on the pitch (unlike its local USL rival the Oakland Roots) and drawing decent crowds. However, the Oakland Roots move to the Coliseum appears to stimulating interest in the club with an average attendance this season slightly over 10,000 per match. The Town despite having some cool marketing and a good product on the pitch are likely being hurt by its association with John Fisher and the Quakes ownership. In fact, the Oakland Roots staying power might have been given a huge assist by Fisher’s decision to move the MLB’s A’s from the Bay Area, creating a backlash against anything associated with him among locals (this would include the Earthquakes who have recently seen their political clout diminish locally while the Roots’ clout increases as a result).

• Ventura County FC are performing well on-the-pitch but aren’t delivering the promised crowd numbers I am told by multiple sources. This might be one worth watching, because the LA Galaxy’s disastrous season (Ventura County serves as the Galaxy’s affiliate in MLS NP) thus far in MLS might create some tension here. But it is too early to tell.

It also has to be noted The Athletic’s coverage of the Louodun United ownership fiasco is being used behind the scenes to scare investors off the cost of maintaining a club in USL. However, to this point we have seen no tangible evidence that it has impacted the decision of any potential investor to choose the MLS ecosystem over the USL one. But this is worth monitoring.