The Grand Rapids one is kinda interesting because just a few hours away USL1 has Fort Wayne FC which is also building a privately financed stadium of roughly the same size. They would make for phenomenal rivals if we had a functioning lower league system in this country. San Francisco and Cleveland both seem to be stalking horses for MLS franchises not necessarily long-term MLSNP efforts. I really wish USL could snag the Cleveland and San Francisco markets those would be huge gets. I'm also curious about MLSNP putting a DC United feeder team in Baltimore. That would be a huge loss for the city of Baltimore and USL. Jacksonville will be a key market in USL vs MLSNP. Luckily for USL they have a lot of irons in the fire expansion-wise and USL might be adding over 10 teams across the ecosystem next year. The bigger the professional USL leagues grow the more appealing they will be to investors.
After a quick look it seems that if everything goes according to plan (a huge if in lower league American soccer) the USL will add 13 professional teams across it's ecosystem in 2026:
USLC-5 (shakiest one being Milwaukee)
USL1-7
USLS-1
That will be the second year in a row USL adds at least a dozen professional teams to the American soccer system. In 2025 they added:
USL1-5
USLS-8
That seems like a huge story I hope gets some national attention. Not only that, I think the 2027 class will be similarly as large. USL is the league growing the game in this country and connecting communities. Picking up the torch that MLS has dropped after years of rapid expansion.
If one of the independent MLSNP clubs collapse (e.g. the Town, or Ventura), that would precipitate such a capital flight from the MLSNP that the other independents may collapse soon-thereafter.
Got it! How successful do you feel the re-badging has been? Both The Town & Ventura County games seem sparsely attended?
That means only Carolina Core and Chattanooga are the only true independent MLSNP sides? It seems impossible to get reliable attendance figures for MLSNP games but the videos available for Carolina show sparse attendance. How sustainable can the club be if it still needs to provide a "stipend" for at least some of its players yet has minimal merch or gate revenues?
Yeah Carolina Core and Chattanooga are the only independent teams in MLSNP as of now. Which makes Huntsville an even more egregious mistake because it is a reserve team in what should be a solid independent team market.
Huntsville choosing to be a reserve team instead of being independent likely is because that all coaching/sporting director costs as well as the "stipends" the players receive, and travel, logistics, and infrastructure costs, are all shouldered by the MLS first team. Ironically, this underscores what a bad business proposition being a MLSNP independent is, as CC and CFC are already handicapped to the tune of several million dollars in costs and support each season against the MLSNP reserve sides. Given that inequity, it seems idiotic for others to focus just on the lower initial franchise fee....
As a former Crystal Palace USA/Baltimore and DC United season ticket holder, I have pretty much zero interest supporting DC MLSNP team in Baltimore.
And I darn sure don’t want for tax dollars to be going to help fund a stadium for one. I wouldn’t want it for a USL pro team either.
In the aftermath of Baltimore and Maryland being toyed with by FIFA in the sham of a World Cup host city process, I’m not sure how much appetite there is around here to try to bring a team to the area.
Just because there have worked miracles in Annapolis…. Which still leaves me completely perplexed but kudos to the Blues. I seriously doubt that can be replicated 30-55 miles north.
I think they need some significant improvement in their ticket sales department and sponsorships if they’re going to make it beyond next season. They’ll be around next season but they could be a really short term thing if we don’t see improvement.
Which USL League One side is in danger of not returning?? The USL1 teams that faded last year were "one-offs" --due to a shady owner who stiffed contractors, another with a coach who very publicly and prominently battled the players and owners. None of those factors are present this year in any of the present and near-future USL clubs....
Of the MLS-NP clubs listed, only Grand Rapids seem likely to have staying power. It is being backed by the DeVos billionaire family, as a way of getting into the MLS. The owners of all the other MLS-NP are shadowy and likely don't have the unlimited funds to throw at their MLSNP club with no path to promotion or large-scale monetization. The collapse of any of the MLSNP independent clubs will come suddenly and with little warning, given the lack of transparency of the entire MLS-NP ecosystem. Oh, and last but not least, the MLSNP players don't have a CBA so the best talent older than 22 will increasingly flock to the USL.....
I think multiple clubs given their attendance and payroll staff & player-wise are in danger. Now that doesn’t mean the clubs would necessarily go out of business they could shift another league. But until USL builds out a true regional format for L1, the league won’t be stable. I’m convinced of that.
Maybe no one drops this season, but at the end of next I could see several teams in trouble.
Got it! Indeed, the USL1 has higher travel costs than the USLC, and the western USL1 clubs are hardest hit, due to the lack of a western conference. However, USL Boise (Idaho), Fort Wayne (IN) and Eugene OR (and Ballard, WA?) will help cut down the travel costs when they launch soon. In the meantime, the Jagermeister Cup gives the western USL1 clubs additional home slots for increased revenue opportunities....
Hey Kartik, think you can do a comparison between USL1&2 with MLSNP in your new podcast? Would love to hear more details about starting a team in each.
The USL1 clubs with the bottom six attendances are below. The majority of these have wealthy owners (as noted below) who don't stiff contractors, so they could live on indefinitely. Remember, an owner with $100 million in liquid wealth can easily lose $1-2 million per year on a club for decades, even assuming that he/she is still not making money in his/her ventures outside soccer
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2,053 - Park City/ real estate wealth
Strong points (as usual). But sometimes, even rich and wealthy people get tired of losing money.
Complete apples to oranges comparison but if AEW had not worked out the deal it did last year even Tony Khan’s dad might have had enough with his vanity project/labor of love.
Even with all the NFL and EPL money they are pulling in (and the Jags and Fulham are just part of their empire).
The Grand Rapids one is kinda interesting because just a few hours away USL1 has Fort Wayne FC which is also building a privately financed stadium of roughly the same size. They would make for phenomenal rivals if we had a functioning lower league system in this country. San Francisco and Cleveland both seem to be stalking horses for MLS franchises not necessarily long-term MLSNP efforts. I really wish USL could snag the Cleveland and San Francisco markets those would be huge gets. I'm also curious about MLSNP putting a DC United feeder team in Baltimore. That would be a huge loss for the city of Baltimore and USL. Jacksonville will be a key market in USL vs MLSNP. Luckily for USL they have a lot of irons in the fire expansion-wise and USL might be adding over 10 teams across the ecosystem next year. The bigger the professional USL leagues grow the more appealing they will be to investors.
Yep- this analysis is spot on!
After a quick look it seems that if everything goes according to plan (a huge if in lower league American soccer) the USL will add 13 professional teams across it's ecosystem in 2026:
USLC-5 (shakiest one being Milwaukee)
USL1-7
USLS-1
That will be the second year in a row USL adds at least a dozen professional teams to the American soccer system. In 2025 they added:
USL1-5
USLS-8
That seems like a huge story I hope gets some national attention. Not only that, I think the 2027 class will be similarly as large. USL is the league growing the game in this country and connecting communities. Picking up the torch that MLS has dropped after years of rapid expansion.
If one of the independent MLSNP clubs collapse (e.g. the Town, or Ventura), that would precipitate such a capital flight from the MLSNP that the other independents may collapse soon-thereafter.
The Town and Ventura County aren’t independent they’re San Jose Earthquakes 2 and LA Galaxy 2 re-badged to appear as more than reserve sides
Got it! How successful do you feel the re-badging has been? Both The Town & Ventura County games seem sparsely attended?
That means only Carolina Core and Chattanooga are the only true independent MLSNP sides? It seems impossible to get reliable attendance figures for MLSNP games but the videos available for Carolina show sparse attendance. How sustainable can the club be if it still needs to provide a "stipend" for at least some of its players yet has minimal merch or gate revenues?
Yeah Carolina Core and Chattanooga are the only independent teams in MLSNP as of now. Which makes Huntsville an even more egregious mistake because it is a reserve team in what should be a solid independent team market.
Huntsville choosing to be a reserve team instead of being independent likely is because that all coaching/sporting director costs as well as the "stipends" the players receive, and travel, logistics, and infrastructure costs, are all shouldered by the MLS first team. Ironically, this underscores what a bad business proposition being a MLSNP independent is, as CC and CFC are already handicapped to the tune of several million dollars in costs and support each season against the MLSNP reserve sides. Given that inequity, it seems idiotic for others to focus just on the lower initial franchise fee....
As a former Crystal Palace USA/Baltimore and DC United season ticket holder, I have pretty much zero interest supporting DC MLSNP team in Baltimore.
And I darn sure don’t want for tax dollars to be going to help fund a stadium for one. I wouldn’t want it for a USL pro team either.
In the aftermath of Baltimore and Maryland being toyed with by FIFA in the sham of a World Cup host city process, I’m not sure how much appetite there is around here to try to bring a team to the area.
Just because there have worked miracles in Annapolis…. Which still leaves me completely perplexed but kudos to the Blues. I seriously doubt that can be replicated 30-55 miles north.
Is Westchester FC in trouble?
I think they need some significant improvement in their ticket sales department and sponsorships if they’re going to make it beyond next season. They’ll be around next season but they could be a really short term thing if we don’t see improvement.
Which USL League One side is in danger of not returning?? The USL1 teams that faded last year were "one-offs" --due to a shady owner who stiffed contractors, another with a coach who very publicly and prominently battled the players and owners. None of those factors are present this year in any of the present and near-future USL clubs....
Of the MLS-NP clubs listed, only Grand Rapids seem likely to have staying power. It is being backed by the DeVos billionaire family, as a way of getting into the MLS. The owners of all the other MLS-NP are shadowy and likely don't have the unlimited funds to throw at their MLSNP club with no path to promotion or large-scale monetization. The collapse of any of the MLSNP independent clubs will come suddenly and with little warning, given the lack of transparency of the entire MLS-NP ecosystem. Oh, and last but not least, the MLSNP players don't have a CBA so the best talent older than 22 will increasingly flock to the USL.....
I think multiple clubs given their attendance and payroll staff & player-wise are in danger. Now that doesn’t mean the clubs would necessarily go out of business they could shift another league. But until USL builds out a true regional format for L1, the league won’t be stable. I’m convinced of that.
Maybe no one drops this season, but at the end of next I could see several teams in trouble.
Got it! Indeed, the USL1 has higher travel costs than the USLC, and the western USL1 clubs are hardest hit, due to the lack of a western conference. However, USL Boise (Idaho), Fort Wayne (IN) and Eugene OR (and Ballard, WA?) will help cut down the travel costs when they launch soon. In the meantime, the Jagermeister Cup gives the western USL1 clubs additional home slots for increased revenue opportunities....
Hey Kartik, think you can do a comparison between USL1&2 with MLSNP in your new podcast? Would love to hear more details about starting a team in each.
The USL1 clubs with the bottom six attendances are below. The majority of these have wealthy owners (as noted below) who don't stiff contractors, so they could live on indefinitely. Remember, an owner with $100 million in liquid wealth can easily lose $1-2 million per year on a club for decades, even assuming that he/she is still not making money in his/her ventures outside soccer
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2,053 - Park City/ real estate wealth
Greenville Triumph 1,985 ?
Westchester SC 1,819 Hedge fund wealth
Texoma FC 1,227 - ?
South Georgia Tormenta 795 - Family wealth
Charlotte Independence 891 - Nucor owner
Strong points (as usual). But sometimes, even rich and wealthy people get tired of losing money.
Complete apples to oranges comparison but if AEW had not worked out the deal it did last year even Tony Khan’s dad might have had enough with his vanity project/labor of love.
Even with all the NFL and EPL money they are pulling in (and the Jags and Fulham are just part of their empire).