On the Edge: Does Tormenta Have a Shot at the Playoffs?
In the 8th and final spot, it depends on if the teams below really want it.
Image credit Caroline Boykin/South Georgia Tormenta FC
We mentioned before that the expanded playoff format will probably allow an otherwise mediocre side to squeak in. But of course, if you make it in, you can pull an upset in a knockout tournament. The 8th seed will travel to the 1st seed, and will throw everything they have at pulling an upset against the regular season champs.
Currently, that 8th seed is South Georgia Tormenta. They’ve stayed alive in the 8th and final spot thanks to a pair of draws against Spokane and an otherwise surging Northern Colorado Hailstorm.
It’s a fragile spot though. Spokane appears to be pulling away, now five points ahead with a pair of matches in hand. Meanwhile, Tormenta is just one point above 9th place Chattanooga.
What will it take for Tormenta to remain in the bubble?
Tormenta’s Path to the Playoffs
There are six matches remaining in the regular season for Tormenta, and unfortunately all but one go through teams higher in the table.
Regular season play resumes on September 14th at Spokane. However, Spokane will have played two regular season matches at home in the meantime. They defeated Omaha 2-1 on September 4th, and then face Central Valley Fuego on September 7th. They’re already pulling away away in the standings.
Chattanooga also has a match in hand, hosting Madison on September 7th. They aren’t favored to win that one, but should they win, they’d take over the 8th spot.
But let’s get back to Tormenta’s schedule. They will host Charlotte, Richmond and Omaha, and travel to Northern Colorado and Greenville. With the exception of Richmond, all of these teams are higher in the table.
Here’s what will have to happen to get through this stretch.
Maintain Early Leads
Despite coming away with two points, the last three league matches have not been pretty affairs.
At Central Valley Fuego on July 27th, Tormenta scored early, but went back and forth. They gave up an equalizer, responded with a quick goal, then gave up another equalizer. They would go on to lose this one on a 73rd minute goal.
Hosting Spokane on August 4th, Aaron Walker and Pedro Fonseca struck early, putting Tormenta up 2-0 in the 19th minute. However, they’d once again give up goals to see a lead turn into a tie. A response goal put them ahead early in the second half, but they’d give up a late equalizer to walk away with a draw.
Finally, hosting Northern Colorado, the match appeared to be heading to a scoreless draw, something most teams would find acceptable against a powerhouse offense. However, an 80th minute penalty kick had Tormenta down, and it took a goal at the death to equalize.
Tormenta has no problems scoring goals.
They’re third in the league in regular season goals at 25, and have seen plenty of offensive brilliance. Sebastián Vivas and Pedro Fonseca have teamed up for 13 in regular season play, with Niall Watson and Gabi Rodriguez providing a constant secondary threat. Add to this the midfield movement of Mason Tunbridge and Ajmeer Spengler, and this group is difficult to defend.
But many times, it comes at the expense of its defense, leaving the back exposed.
The Bottom Four: Late Season Surge, or Fizzle Out?
Tormenta also has to depend on the bottom four sides not surging. Lucky for them, three do not appear to be set up for a late season spike in wins. Chattanooga has lost three league matches in a row; Richmond is winless in five, with four of them losses; and Central Valley Fuego has dropped two straight after a surprising two-match win streak.
Lexington presents the biggest threat at this time. They are three points back, and Tormenta holds the tiebreaker, but also have two matches in hand. One match will be made up this weekend, at Northern Colorado. By the time Tormenta resumes play, they could be in a points tie with Lexington.
Can Tormenta Make the Playoffs?
If they can continue to run out to early leads and manage to tighten the defenses afterwords, it’s a possibility. The defensive pieces are there, but need to be used properly.
Maintaining the 8th spot is especially a possibility if none of the bottom four teams see a late-season surge.
Just have to watch out for pesky Lexington SC.