On the Edge: Does Lexington Have a Shot at the Playoffs?
Is there a late-season surge coming that might push them through?
Image credit Lexington SC
By now it’s obvious that we aren’t huge fans of the 8-team playoff format, in a table of 12. We’ve mentioned twice now that the expanded format will probably allow a mediocre side to squeak in, but if you’re in, you can cause chaos if you manage to take down the top seed.
Lexington SC has entered the chat.
Currently sitting at 10th place, this has been a painfully frustrating team to watch this season. We gave them high marks in the pre-season for bringing in what appeared to be an all-star roster. Given the pedigree of the crop of offensive playmakers they brought in, we expected goals to pile up.
But goals just didn’t come. Instead, losses started piling up. On June 1st, they were trounced by Forward Madison by a score of 4-1. It was the fourth loss in seven matches, a period that saw just one victory and six total goals scored in regular season play. Even the lone victory was an uninspiring 1-0 win over an otherwise bad Chattanooga defense.
We thought there might be something brewing in the final two months of the season after the team went unbeaten starting with a win over Richmond at the end of July. However this weekend, the team saw an especially horrific second-half collapse against Northern Colorado, giving up three goals en route to a 5-1 loss.
Lexington’s Path to the Playoffs
Of the three bubble teams we’ve profiled so far, Lexington appears to have the easiest schedule to finish out the season. It’s not a breeze by any means, as they’ll face Knoxville, Greenville, Omaha and Charlotte. But they also may be punching down, hosting Central Valley Fuego and visiting Richmond. And if the final spot comes down to the final weekend of the season, they’re in luck: they’ll face Chattanooga.
Of course, this team has been notoriously inconsistent this season, so it’s hard to predict anything. And the “undefeated” month of August still included a pair of draws, when wins were desperately needed. But if figure out how to play nicely with each other and capitalize on all the talent that has been wasted to this point in the season, they could get there.
Where Are the Goals?
Again, this is a side full of goal scoring talent that has been frustratingly inconsistent in actually scoring goals. Lexington sits at third-to-last in goals scored this season with just 19. Even accounting for Jägermeister Cup goals, they’re still at 29th, only good enough for 9th in the league.
When the goals are scored, they’re coming from up and down the roster. They’re not dependent on any one star forward or attacking midfielders. But a lot more is expected when they have the likes of Ates Diouf, Cameron Lancaster, Azaad Liadi, Yannick Yankam, and Alexis Cerritos.
For his part, Diouf is creating chances, along with Yankam and Tate Robertson, and Diouf and Yankam have three assists each in the regular season. But chances don’t mean much if they aren’t landing for goals.
Defensive Woes
Lexington has given up 41 goals overall, 31 of which have been in regular season play. They have a -12 goal differential in both the regular season and when all league competitions are counted.
The problems were on full display against Northern Colorado on Saturday. Left wide open at the top of the box, Bruno Rendón had no problems putting away an errant clearance attempt from Lexington’s Cerritos.
Another poor clearance attempt saw Rendón steal the ball from Lexington defender Jorge Corrales, and outrun him to cross the ball to a charging Ethan Hoard and Billy King. It was King who put that one away for his first of two that night. The Lexington defense seemed lost and confused during Kings’s second, a shot from outside the box in the 56th minute.
Needless to say, it’s not sustainable for a playoff run, especially if the path runs by league goals leader Union Omaha.
Can Lexington Make the Playoffs?
Look, it would be nice for everyone’s pride if the team moving up a division actually did compete in the post-season, even if they don’t win. But with the way things are going, it’s not looking likely. Instead, Lexington will probably have to endure being the butt of jokes in a system that doesn’t promote on merit, but on the basis of money and a bigger stadium stadium.
Given that the team already seems to have given up, we rank Lexington’s chances close to zero.